As many institutions are playing to be a forecaster, I also have decided to give it a try. I will have a look at currencies, stock markets and commodities prices in 2018.
Currencies and cryptocurrencies
In my opinion US dollar plummeted too much in the last year. Raising interest rates and possible repatriation of money by American companies, caused by lowered tax rate, will strength the dollar. Also British Pound will finally grow slightly. The currency which I underweight is Euro.
GBP/PLN will increase +4% to 4.90
USD/PLN will increase +7% to 3.75
USD/EUR will increase +7% to 0.90
2017 was the year of cryptocurrencies. The hype was irrational. My prediction is that bitcoin will go down to 10 000 USD (another -28%). I expect share of Bitcoin in cryptocurrency market will plunge more. Cost of transaction for Bitcoin is too high so it makes Bitcoin not a good solution for payments in comparison to different cryptocurrencies.
My forecast for S&P500 is that it will go up +5% and will reach 2817.00.
My stocks on the NYSE will grow +10%:
- Apple 187.50 (including dividends)
- Facebook 195.00
- Alphabet 1165.00
The psychological level of 200 for Apple and Facebook stocks is not far. Maybe the companies will reach that level the coming year but I will be more careful in my predictions.
Index of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG20 – forecasting price 2654.00 after growth +7%.
My wallet of stocks from Warsaw Stock Exchange will grow +10%.
Russian market represented by RTS Index USD will go up +10% reaching 1264.00.
The bull market in commodities will continue in 2018. Electric vehicle revolution will support growth on Copper, Rare Earth Metals and possibly Uranium as the source of clean energy.
Inflation which has shown all around the world is the good omen for rising prices of Gold and Silver. Also the bear market in cryptocurrencies will be another source of demand for Precious Metals.
My forecasted levels for commodities in my portfolio:
- Gold – XAUUSD price 1390.00 (+8%)
- Copper – HG.F price 345 (+5%)
- Uranium – CAMECO – CCJ.US price 10.70 (+10%)
- Oil – CL.F price 62.60 (+5%)
- Rare Earth Metals – REMX.US price 32.50 (+10%)
Properties and Happy New Year
My extra prediction is about properties. I expect that in 2018 properties in the UK will go down -1%, I expect plunge will continue in 2019.
I wish you great investments and Happy New Year. At the end of the 2018 year we will check how good forecaster I am.
Please note I am not a regulated financial advisor and so any help will be non-advisory. If you are unsure of the suitability of any investment you should seek professional financial advice.