The trade war is heating up – update on Facebook, Gazprom and my Chinese shares

The correction on the S&P 500 in May 2019

S&P 500 went down 6.58% during the last month

The new tariffs on Chinese products were proclaimed by President Donald Trump at the beginning of May. It was the trigger for the correction on stock markets in May. Another reason for the May sell-off was the extension of the trade war on the technological front. Trump’s banning of Huawei could be a sign of worsening relations between China and the United States. Later, Google suspended Huawei’s access to the Android operating system.

My comment on Alphabet and Facebook

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My portfolio for 2018

Welcome in the year 2018. The year 2017 was very good in the financial markets. The developed markets were growing steadily with S&P500, Nasdaq and British FTSE100 growing respectively +19.96%, +28.86% and +8.55%.

The emerging markets outpaced the developed markets with Argentinian Marvel raising +77.62%, Turkish XU100 +47.60%, Indian Sensex +27.91% and Polish WIG20 +26.35%. Results of those markets are even better if we refer them to one currency – for example Polish PLN gained +16.84% to the US Dollar in the year 2017.

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2018 forecast for stock markets, commodities and currencies

As many institutions are playing to be a forecaster, I also have decided to give it a try. I will have a look at currencies, stock markets and commodities prices in 2018.

 

Currencies and cryptocurrencies

In my opinion US dollar plummeted too much in the last year. Raising interest rates and possible repatriation of money by American companies, caused by lowered tax rate, will strength the dollar. Also British Pound will finally grow slightly. The currency which I underweight is Euro.

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US presidential election 2016

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It is supposed that the upcoming event in the USA in November – the presidential election – may affect stock markets around the world, however, I do not think that the winery of a particular candidate in the USA will have a really big impact on the performance of most of the Polish companies.
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